Modelling Trends of Hepatitis E Infection

Background: Hepatitis E is prevalent in many individuals, particularly in developing regions. While the infection often results in a self-limited, acute illness, it has a high likelihood of progressing to a chronic condition. Chronic infections can occur in pregnant women, individuals with weakened immune systems (such as the elderly, those with underlying illnesses), and especially in individuals who have undergone solid organ transplants.

Methods: A comprehensive literature search on viral hepatitis E in children attending primary, secondary, and higher schools was conducted using various search terms. The focus on schools stems from the assumption that educational institutions should possess greater awareness of viral hepatitis E. A mathematical model was developed to describe the dynamic transmission of the virus, and sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the model's responsiveness to different parameters.

Results: The results indicate that oral consumption is the primary mode of transmission, especially in higher education settings. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated positive influences of all parameters associated with infection pathways. By utilizing the mathematical model of dynamic transmission, the projected infection rate can potentially be mitigated.

Conclusion: In conclusion, the projected infection rate as indicated by the model can be mitigated through the application of the dynamic transmission mathematical model. Implementing a range of strategies for targeted or widespread vaccination stands as a potent intervention for the improvement of public health.